Airfares in Nigeria may increase in the coming weeks following a sharp rise in the cost of aviation fuel, commonly known as Jet A1, a development already placing significant pressure on airline operations.
The spike in fuel prices is largely linked to the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, which has disrupted crude oil production and supply chains, driving up operational costs for domestic carriers.
Findings indicate that aviation fuel prices have surged dramatically from between ₦900 and ₦995 per litre before the crisis to about ₦2,500–₦2,700, depending on the airport of delivery. This sharp increase has made fuel the dominant cost driver for airlines in recent weeks.
Operators say they are closely monitoring the situation, warning that a hike in ticket prices is imminent. There are strong indications that fares could double if the current trend persists.
Industry sources note that aviation fuel, which typically accounts for 30 to 35 per cent of airline operating costs, is now rising rapidly and exerting unprecedented pressure on the sector. Prices have also remained volatile since late February, changing multiple times and complicating planning and pricing strategies.
Despite the surge in fuel costs, many airlines have maintained ticket prices at around ₦195,000, raising concerns about how long such pricing can be sustained.
Airline officials warn that if fuel prices climb to ₦3,000 per litre, some operators may be forced to suspend operations, potentially reducing available capacity and pushing fares even higher.
The situation is further compounded by rising global crude oil prices, which have climbed from about $65–$69 to roughly $112 per barrel, intensifying the cost burden on airlines.
Aviation analysts project that ticket prices could increase by 20 to 25 per cent in the near term as operators adjust to the growing cost of fuel. They note that aviation fuel has now overtaken maintenance as the largest expense in airline operations, accounting for up to 45 per cent of total costs.
With operating expenses continuing to climb, stakeholders say fare adjustments may be unavoidable as airlines strive to remain viable under current market conditions.